Weekly Brief

Welcome to the tut0ugh Weekly Brief. This past week, global diplomacy and security developments accelerated across multiple regions, as Russia marked Victory Day alongside fragile ceasefire talks with Ukraine, Europe and ASEAN leaders convened on energy and strategic resilience, and multinational defence exercises concluded in Morocco. Meanwhile, new economic and security partnerships emerged from Türkiye to Japan and across Africa and the Asia-Pacific, while leadership transitions in Hungary and Costa Rica signalled notable political shifts amid broader geopolitical realignment.

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Day 72 of US-Israel war on Iran sees renewed Gulf security fears and diplomatic push

The US-Israel war on Iran entered day 72 on Sunday (10 May), with Washington awaiting Tehran’s response to its latest proposal to end the war. US President Donald Trump said an Iranian reply could come “very soon”, while mediation efforts continued through Pakistan and Qatar.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warned it could target US regional sites and commercial shipping if Iranian tankers are attacked. Iranian officials also warned countries enforcing US sanctions could face disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global energy route.

Regional tensions widened after Bahrain announced arrests linked to the IRGC, while the US Central Command said it had blocked dozens of vessels from Iranian ports since April. Meanwhile, clashes persisted between Israel and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon despite ceasefire efforts, as European officials called for greater humanitarian access.

Labour suffers major local election losses as Reform UK and Greens advance

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Labour Party suffered heavy losses in the 2026 UK local and devolved elections, losing more than 1,400 council seats and control of dozens of councils across England, alongside major setbacks in Scotland and Wales. Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, recorded significant gains in traditional Labour strongholds, while the Green Party, Plaid Cymru, and the Scottish National Party (SNP) also advanced.  

Labour lost long-held influence in Wales, where Plaid Cymru became the largest Senedd party, while Reform UK gained ground in northern England and parts of Scotland. Analysts described the results as evidence of an increasingly fragmented five-party political landscape.  

Senior Labour figures publicly backed Starmer, although pressure over his leadership intensified following the results. 

Russia holds Victory Day parade amid ceasefire

Russia marked its annual Victory Day parade in Moscow on 9 May 2026 under heightened security and a reduced military display, with no heavy armour shown in Red Square. A temporary ceasefire, brokered by US President Donald Trump, and a planned exchange of 1,000 prisoners each helped ease security concerns.

President Vladimir Putin said the Ukraine conflict may be “coming to an end”, while criticising continued Western and NATO support for Kyiv. He added that any meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky would only take place after a final peace treaty is agreed.

European Council President António Costa said there was “potential” for EU–Russia dialogue at an appropriate time, as diplomatic efforts continue alongside ongoing uncertainty over a long-term settlement.

Leaders convene at EPC and ASEAN summits, highlighting security and economic resilience

European Political Community (EPC) leaders from nearly 50 countries met in Yerevan, Armenia, co-chaired by European Council President António Costa and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called for reducing Europe’s “overdependencies” in energy, defence, security, and supply chains.

Separately, Southeast Asian leaders convened at the 2026 ASEAN Summit in Cebu, Philippine President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. urged stronger regional cooperation on energy security, food supply, and resilience, citing global disruptions affecting prices and trade stability.

African Lion 2026 military exercise concludes in Morocco

African Lion 2026, organised by US Africa Command (AFRICOM) and the Royal Moroccan Armed Forces, concluded in Morocco after weeks of multinational military exercises involving nearly 5,000 personnel from over 40 countries.

During the closing ceremony in Agadir, US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth praised Morocco’s role as a key regional security partner. The drills included land, air, maritime, cyber, and humanitarian operations across Agadir and Tan-Tan.

The exercise featured live-fire drills, special operations training, and expanded focus on drones, cyber defence, satellite systems, and interoperability for crisis response and future warfare readiness.

Peter Magyar sworn in as Hungary’s prime minister; Laura Fernández sworn in as Costa Rica president

Peter Magyar has been sworn in as Hungary’s new prime minister following the 2026 parliamentary election, ending Viktor Orbán’s 16-year tenure. The Tisza Party secured 141 of 199 seats, pledging closer ties with the European Union and efforts to unlock approximately $20bn in frozen EU funding.

A parliamentary ceremony marked the transition, with the EU flag displayed in the chamber for the first time in 12 years after reinstatement by Ágnes Forsthoffer, Speaker of Parliament.

Meanwhile, Costa Rica President Laura Fernández was sworn in, pledging major security and judicial reforms to address rising organised crime and record homicide levels. She confirmed plans for a maximum-security prison and expanded surveillance measures as part of an intensified national security strategy.

Türkiye deepens strategic partnership with Algeria; strengthens defence industrial ties with Japan

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune signed multiple agreements in Ankara during the first High-Level Strategic Cooperation Council meeting between the two countries. The agreements covered trade, transport, agriculture, telecommunications, investment, disaster management, and media cooperation, alongside plans for negotiations on a preferential trade agreement.

Separately, Türkiye and Japan signed a letter of intent to expand defence industry cooperation during SAHA 2026 in Istanbul. The agreement involved Türkiye’s Presidency of Defence Industries and Japan’s Acquisition, Technology and Logistics Agency.

Officials highlighted potential cooperation in defence technology, including possible future collaboration on unmanned aerial vehicle development and production.

Asia-Pacific nations strengthen trade, defence, and economic security cooperation

Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake and Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu signed seven agreements in Colombo covering tourism, education, health, youth development, archives, and defence cooperation. Both leaders also highlighted climate resilience and regional cooperation.

Separately, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Vietnamese President To Lam elevated bilateral ties to an Enhanced Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, announcing a $25 billion annual trade target by 2030. Thirteen agreements covered digital payments, rare earths, banking, pharmaceuticals, education, and defence cooperation.

Meanwhile, Singapore Prime Minister Lawrence Wong and New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon signed a binding supply chain agreement to protect essential goods flows during global disruptions.

Angola and Gabon deepen economic diversification partnership as Rwanda and Botswana strengthen ties

Angolan President João Lourenço and Gabonese President Brice Oligui Nguema signed three agreements in Luanda aimed at strengthening cooperation in tourism, agriculture, energy, and trade as both countries seek to diversify beyond oil revenues. The leaders also emphasised regional stability, investment, and political cooperation.

Separately, Rwandan President Paul Kagame and Botswanan President Duma Boko signed six agreements covering aviation, transport, tourism, education, agriculture, and regional connectivity during Kagame’s state visit to Botswana.

Both leaders highlighted investment facilitation measures, including visa reforms, taxation cooperation, and improved air connectivity to strengthen bilateral trade and economic integration.

Japan strengthens strategic ties with Australia, South Africa, and Indonesia

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae signed agreements on defence, economic security, critical minerals, and energy cooperation during talks in Canberra, marking 50 years since the bilateral friendship treaty. Both sides pledged closer coordination on Indo-Pacific stability, economic coercion, and rare earths supply chains.

Separately, Indonesian Defence Minister Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin and Japanese Defence Minister Koizumi Shinjiro signed a Defence Cooperation Arrangement in Jakarta covering maritime security, disaster relief, defence technology, and operational coordination.

In Pretoria, Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi and South African International Relations Minister Ronald Lamola agreed to expand cooperation on critical minerals and investment, while reaffirming support for a “free and open Indo-Pacific”.

Taiwan and Paraguay reaffirm diplomatic relations as China urges isolation

Taiwan President Lai Ching-te and King Mswati III reaffirmed diplomatic relations during Lai’s state visit to Eswatini, Taiwan’s only African ally. The visit marked 58 years of ties, with both sides signing a customs cooperation agreement and expanding trade, education, cultural, and AI-driven healthcare collaboration.

Taiwan alleged Beijing pressured Seychelles, Mauritius, and Madagascar to block flight permits for Lai’s charter aircraft. China’s Foreign Ministry criticised the trip, reiterating its “One China” position.

Separately, Paraguayan President Santiago Peña reaffirmed Paraguay’s diplomatic ties with Taiwan during a visit to Taipei, despite renewed pressure from Beijing to sever relations.

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