Weekly Brief

March 15, 2026

Welcome to the tut0ugh Weekly Brief. This past week, Iran war developments, Pakistan–Afghanistan clashes, energy deals, and defence agreements highlighted rising geopolitical tensions and strategic realignments worldwide.

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Iran war enters third week as US–Israel strike over 15,000 targets and Hormuz crisis intensifies

The Iran war has entered its third week, with heightened US–Israeli strikes and expanding regional tensions shaping the conflict’s trajectory.

US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine said allied forces have struck more than 15,000 Iranian targets, including ballistic-missile launch sites, drone facilities, naval vessels, and command centres. US assessments indicate Iranian missile launches have fallen about 90% and drone attacks roughly 95%, though fighting continues.

The war has triggered a Strait of Hormuz security crisis, disrupting a route that carries around 20% of global oil supplies. The International Energy Agency announced a record 400-million-barrel emergency oil reserve release, while the Trump urged international allies—including France, China, Japan, South Korea, and the UK—to deploy warships to secure shipping routes and keep the strait open.

US President Donald Trump said the US Navy will escort oil tankers through the strait and warned Iran that oil infrastructure on Kharg Island could be targeted if shipping is disrupted, after US strikes reportedly destroyed military facilities there.

Iran responded by warning residents to evacuate ports in the United Arab Emirates. Khatam al-Anbiya headquarters spokesperson Ebrahim Zolfaghari said Iran could target regional energy infrastructure linked to US partners, while Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi alleged US strikes were launched from UAE ports near Ras Al-Khaimah and Dubai.

Cross-border fighting rises between Pakistan and Afghanistan amid regional instability

Pakistan–Afghanistan border tensions escalated sharply over the past week, with cross-border strikes, drone accusations, and rising civilian casualties marking the most serious fighting between the neighbours in years.

Asif Ali Zardari warned the Taliban government of Afghanistan had “crossed a red line” after alleged drone attacks on Pakistani cities including Quetta, where falling debris reportedly injured civilians. Pakistan said it intercepted the drones before impact.

Pakistan later conducted air strikes inside Kandahar, targeting tunnels, storage sites, and infrastructure allegedly used by Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan and other militant groups. Zabihullah Mujahid said some civilian infrastructure was damaged.

Clashes and air attacks since late February have killed around 99 people and displaced about 115,000 civilians, according to humanitarian and official figures. Pakistan accuses Kabul of harbouring militants, while the Taliban denies the allegation.

Balendra Shah poised to lead Nepal government after RSP landslide

Nepal’s Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) has secured a landslide victory in the latest parliamentary election, the first since youth-led protests in 2025 toppled the previous government.

The RSP won 182 seats in the House of Representatives, narrowly missing a two-thirds majority. Party leader and Mayor of Kathmandu Balendra Shah is expected to lead the next government once coalition arrangements are finalised.

The Nepali Congress secured 38 seats, while the Communist Party of Nepal–UML won 25.

Voter turnout reached around 60% of nearly 19 million eligible voters, with former prime minister KP Sharma Oli losing his seat in Jhapa-5.

EU and Azerbaijan deepen energy cooperation; UK and Ireland sign updated defence pact

European Council President António Costa visited Baku on 11 March 2026 to deepen European Union–Azerbaijan cooperation on energy security, defence, and transport connectivity.

Meeting President Ilham Aliyev, Costa expressed EU “solidarity” after an Iran-linked attack on Nakhchivan and thanked Azerbaijan for evacuating around 1,800 people from Iran, including EU citizens. Talks focused on expanding gas deliveries through the Southern Gas Corridor, a key element of EU energy diversification.

Separately, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Irish Taoiseach Micheál Martin signed an updated UK–Ireland defence agreement, covering maritime security, cyber defence, intelligence sharing, and undersea infrastructure protection, as Ireland plans €1.7 billion in defence investment.

Mark Carney announces major military upgrades across Canada’s North

Prime Minister Mark Carney of Canada has announced C$32 billion ($23.5 billion) in upgrades to Arctic military infrastructure, strengthening defence capabilities across the country’s northern bases.

The investment, part of NORAD modernisation, will fund improvements to airfields, fuel depots, and ammunition storage over the next decade. Carney said the upgrades “will enable the Canadian Armed Forces to defend the Arctic without the help of allies.”

New operational support centres are planned in Whitehorse, Resolute, Cambridge Bay, and Rankin Inlet to support remote deployments and advanced fighter aircraft. Canada is also reviewing its F-35 contract with Lockheed Martin while exploring alternatives, including Saab Gripen jets.

Ghana seeks UN resolution declaring transatlantic slave trade ‘gravest crime in history’

Ghana plans to table a resolution at the United Nations General Assembly declaring the transatlantic slave trade “the gravest crime in the history of humankind”. Backed by all 40 African Union member states, the initiative seeks global recognition of slavery’s scale, brutality, and enduring economic and social impact.

President John Dramani Mahama supports the proposal, while Foreign Affairs Minister Samuel Okudzeto Ablakwa has urged Commonwealth countries to back the measure ahead of a possible UN vote around 25 March 2026. If adopted, the resolution could strengthen international debate on historical accountability and reparations, addressing the legacy of a trade that forcibly transported over 12 million Africans to the Americas.

Latvia and Czech Republic deepen defence cooperation; Romania and Ukraine agree drone production deal

President Edgars Rinkēvičs of Latvia hosted President Petr Pavel of the Czech Republic in Riga on 10 March 2026, focusing on NATO security, defence cooperation, and support for Ukraine.

Meeting at Riga Castle, the leaders discussed expanding defence industry partnerships and coordination within the European Union and NATO. Rinkēvičs welcomed the Czech role in the NATO Multinational Brigade Latvia and outlined plans to raise Latvia’s defence spending to 4.91% of GDP in 2026.

Separately, President Nicusor Dan of Romania and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine agreed to manufacture Ukrainian defence systems, including drones, in Romania, strengthening regional security cooperation.

Paraguay approves US military presence deal as Brazil–South Africa discuss defence cooperation

Paraguay’s Chamber of Deputies has approved a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) permitting the temporary presence of United States military and civilian personnel for training, joint exercises, and humanitarian operations.

The measure, backed by President Santiago Peña, passed 53–8 with four abstentions and now awaits his signature. Foreign Minister Rubén Ramírez Lezcano and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio described the accord as “historic”. However, Deputy Raúl Benítez warned provisions granting US criminal jurisdiction over its personnel could raise sovereignty concerns.

Separately, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and President Cyril Ramaphosa called for deeper Brazil–South Africa defence cooperation, including potential joint manufacturing and technology development among BRICS partners.

Mali redistributes $33m in mining revenue to local communities under new mining code

Mali has begun redistributing mining revenues to local authorities, allocating more than CFA18.4 billion ($33 million) through the Local Mining Development Fund, officials said. The funds were handed over on 12 March 2026 at the Koulouba Presidential Palace during a ceremony presided over by General Assimi Goïta, Head of State of Mali, alongside the prime minister and members of the National Transitional Council.

The initiative follows reforms under a new mining code aimed at increasing the economic benefits Mali derives from its natural resources. Half the funds will go to municipalities in mining zones, supporting healthcare, education, water access, energy, and infrastructure, financed mainly through mining royalties and company contributions.

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