Weekly Brief

Welcome to the tut0ugh Weekly Brief. This past week, the Iran war intensifies, Pakistan and Afghanistan paused hostilities, Arctic cooperation deepened, and key defence, energy, and diplomatic developments shaped global geopolitics.

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Iran war enters fourth week as Trump issues ultimatum over Strait of Hormuz

The Iran war has entered its fourth week, marked by intensified military operations and mounting diplomatic tension. Early in the week, US President Donald Trump urged allies to help secure the Strait of Hormuz. Most European countries, including Germany, the UK, Italy, and France, rejected military involvement, emphasising diplomacy. Trump criticised their refusal, calling the decision “very foolish.”

Later, the UK authorised the use of British bases to support strikes on Iranian sites linked to Hormuz operations, while Trump ruled out a ceasefire. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed a temporary easing of sanctions on Iranian oil, and the Pentagon expanded deployments of troops, ships, and aircraft to the region amid rising tensions and energy market disruption.

Late on Saturday (21 March), Trump issued a 48‑hour ultimatum to Iran to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, warning that the United States would strike Iranian power plants if the waterway was not made “open without threat.” The warning follows Iran’s most severe missile attack yet on Israel, injuring over 100 people. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed retaliation “on all fronts,” as strikes damaged residential buildings and left significant craters in affected areas.

The war has exacted a significant humanitarian and military toll across the Middle East. Independent estimates suggest thousands of fatalities since major hostilities escalated, with casualties including civilians, combatants and foreign nationals across Iran, Israel, the Gulf states, and neighbouring countries. Global energy markets remain volatile, and humanitarian concerns persist as displacement and infrastructure damage mount.

Cuba’s Díaz‑Canel warns of “impregnable resistance” as Trump signals potential action

Cuban President Miguel Díaz‑Canel has warned that ‘any external aggressor would encounter an ‘impregnable resistance,’ responding to comments by US President Donald Trump, who said he expects to have the “honour of taking Cuba.”

Díaz‑Canel accused Washington of almost daily threats to Cuba’s constitutional order, linking them to decades of economic pressure and a tightened US blockade, which has deepened the country’s energy and financial crisis. Trump described Cuba as “very weakened” and suggested he could “do anything” with the island, signalling potential action.

Deputy Foreign Minister Carlos Fernandez de Cossio affirmed that Cuba’s political system and leadership are non-negotiable. Limited bilateral talks continue, focusing on trade, compensation claims, and easing economic tensions, but sovereignty and presidential authority remain firmly defended.

Pakistan and Afghanistan announce temporary ceasefire

Pakistan and Afghanistan declared a temporary suspension of cross-border hostilities from 18 March, following a deadly airstrike in Kabul that Afghan authorities said killed hundreds at the Omid Addiction Treatment Hospital. The pause coincides with Eid al-Fitr and was requested by Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Qatar, who mediated the agreement.

Afghan spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid warned Kabul would “respond courageously” to aggression. Monday’s airstrike reportedly caused 408 deaths and 265 injuries, though Pakistan disputes civilian casualty claims.

Zelenskyy shores up European support as he seeks to restart stalled peace talks

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited London and Madrid to reinforce European support amid the ongoing war. In the UK, Zelenskyy and Prime Minister Keir Starmer signed the Enhanced Security and Defence Industrial Collaboration Declaration, advancing joint defence production, air defence, drones, and battlefield integration.

In Spain, Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez announced €1 billion in military aid, supporting joint missile, air defence, and drone projects with Ukrainian manufacturers.

In recent days, Mr. Zelenskyy lamented that talks with Russia had been “constantly postponed” and said they should resume despite US preoccupation with the Iran war. Following a “situational pause”announced by the Kremlin, Ukrainian officials headed to the United States for weekend discussions on sanctions and postwar security guarantees.

Orbán refuses to agree to €90bn Ukraine loan over ‘existential’ oil pipeline dispute

Hungary Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has refused to agree to the EU’s €90bn (£78bn) loan for Ukraine, citing damage to the Druzhba oil pipeline and concerns over Hungarian energy supplies.

Orbán described the issue as “existential” for households and businesses, warning support depends on securing promised oil. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said a resolution is unlikely before Hungary’s 12 April elections, while Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo criticised Orbán, saying he was using Ukraine “as a weapon” in his election campaign, adding: “I think that he betrayed us and we need to find a solution how to go forward.”

In response to the Druzhba pipeline dispute Hungary and Slovakia will build a 127km fuel pipeline linking Százhalombatta and Bratislava refineries, enhancing regional energy security and diversifying supply. Completion is targeted for the first half of 2027.

Nordic countries and Canada strengthen Arctic cooperation

At a summit in Oslo on 15 March, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Nordic leaders agreed to deepen cooperation on defence, Arctic security, economic resilience, and green growth amid geopolitical tensions and climate challenges.

The countries reaffirmed support for NATO Arctic presence and joint exercises such as Cold Response and Operation Nanook, while pledging continued economic, military, and humanitarian aid for Ukraine.

Collaboration will expand in critical minerals, artificial intelligence, space technology, low-carbon energy, and resilient trade and supply chains. Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre emphasised that Arctic states are “stronger together” facing shared security and economic challenges.

DRC and Rwanda agree steps to ease eastern tensions

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Rwanda have pledged coordinated measures to reduce conflict in eastern DRC, following US-hosted talks. The agreement comes amid continued instability despite the 2025 peace deal supported by US President Donald Trump.

Rwanda will begin a scheduled withdrawal of forces and lift defensive positions in designated areas, while the DRC will intensify time-bound operations against the FDLR, an armed group active in the region. Both countries reaffirmed respect for sovereignty, territorial integrity, and civilian protection, though fighting and high tensions persist despite renewed diplomatic efforts.

Republic of Congo President Sassou Nguesso wins fifth term

President Denis Sassou Nguesso has been re-elected for a fifth consecutive term, extending his rule to nearly 42 years. Interior Minister Raymond Zephirin Mboulou reported a 94.82% vote in Sunday’s election, with turnout at 84.65%, though observers noted low participation in parts of Brazzaville.

Two major opposition parties boycotted, citing unfair conditions, while prominent figures General Jean-Marie Michel Mokoko and André Okombi Salissa remain imprisoned. Internet restrictions, activist arrests, and campaign imbalance were reported. Despite oil and mineral wealth, public debt is 94.5% of GDP. A 2015 referendum had previously removed presidential term limits.

UK and Nigeria agree £746m port redevelopment deal

The UK and Nigeria have signed a £746 million ($902m) financing agreement to redevelop the Lagos Port Complex (Apapa Quays) and TinCan Island Port Complex. Coordinated by UK Export Finance (UKEF)and arranged by Citibank London, the deal supports thousands of UK jobs and invests hundreds of millions into the British economy.

British Steel will supply 120,000 tonnes of steel billets under a £70 million contract, while at least £236 million in supplier contracts will benefit UK companies. An MOU also establishes a framework for future trade, infrastructure, and sustainable growth projects. Talks included security, migration, and Sudan humanitarian support.

Chile and Thailand expand border security measures

Chilean President José Antonio Kast has launched the first phase of his “Border Shield” plan at the northern frontier with Peru, days after taking office on 11 March 2026. The initiative aims to curb illegal crossings, drug trafficking and organised crime through trenches, barriers, military patrols, and drone surveillance. Early work at Chacalluta involved heavy machinery digging a trench, signalling wider construction.

In Thailand, the Royal Thai Armed Forces begin a 1.31km fence along the Cambodia border in Chanthaburi province. Spokesman Vithai Laithomya said the project is security-focused, cleared of landmines, and backed by Princess Chulabhorn’s Hataitip Fund.

Kazakh voters approve constitution boosting presidential powers

Voters in Kazakhstan have approved a new constitution in Sunday’s (15 March) referendum, with over 87% backing the reforms and turnout exceeding 73%. The changes replace the bicameral parliament with a single-chamber legislature, restore the vice-presidency, and create a People’s Council with members appointed by President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, capable of initiating legislation and referendums.

Presidential authority over senior appointments is expanded, subject to parliamentary approval, and marriage is constitutionally defined as between a man and a woman.

Analysts warn the reforms could allow Tokayev to reset term limits. The vote occurs amid 11.7% inflationand concerns of unrest reminiscent of 2022 protests.

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