Weekly Brief

Welcome to the tut0ugh Weekly Brief. This past week, US–Iran diplomatic efforts continue amid rising Strait of Hormuz tensions, Israel and Lebanon reach a ceasefire, Sudan’s war enters its fourth year, and global partnerships expand across Europe, Asia, and beyond.

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US–Iran diplomatic efforts continue amid rising Strait of Hormuz tensions

The United States started imposing a naval blockade on Iranian ports starting Monday (13 April) following stalled talks with Iran. President Donald Trump said any agreement depends on Tehran abandoning nuclear weapons ambitions, while Vice President JD Vance outlined efforts towards a broader deal.

Speaking alongside Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, General Dan Caine outlined the operational scope of the US-led effort, stating it is “a blockade of Iran’s ports and coastline, not a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz”. 

On Thursday (16 April), Trump signalled ongoing diplomacy, describing the blockade as a key pressure tool in negotiations.

The standoff escalated on Saturday (18 April) as Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Navy reversed the strait’s reopening, warning vessels they could be targeted and declaring the waterway closed until the US blockade ends. Reports of gunfire on commercial shipping have raised global concern over energy security, with negotiations mediated by Pakistan continuing amid a fragile ceasefire and renewed diplomatic proposals.

Israel and Lebanon agree 10-day ceasefire amid wider US–Iran negotiations

Israel and Lebanon agreed a 10-day ceasefire beginning 16 April, following talks linked to US–Iran negotiations. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described the truce as a step towards a “historic peace agreement”, while President Joseph Aoun is expected to meet Netanyahu in Washington.

Fighting between Israel and Hezbollah has caused over 2,000 deaths in Lebanon, with Israel proposing a 10km security zone. Hezbollah signalled conditional compliance, while Lebanon is likely to demand full Israeli withdrawal. The ceasefire’s durability may shape wider regional diplomacy, including Iran nuclear talks and Strait of Hormuz security.

Hungary’s Tisza Party wins landslide as Orbán era ends 

Hungary’s Tisza Party, led by Péter Magyar, secured a landslide victory with 53% of the vote, ending Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s 16-year rule. Backed by President Tamás Sulyok, parliament formation is set for early May, enabling a new government.

Magyar has pledged anti-corruption reforms, media restructuring, and closer EU cooperation, including engagement with the European Public Prosecutor’s Office. Meanwhile, Fidesz faces internal reassessment, with Orbán acknowledging defeat. The transition comes amid economic challenges, concerns over capital outflows, and efforts to restore checks and balances in Hungary’s political system.

Sudan war enters fourth year as humanitarian crisis deepens

Sudan has entered its fourth year of civil war, with fighting between forces led by General Abdel-Fattah Burhan and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) under General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo continuing without resolution. The conflict has driven a severe humanitarian crisis, with over 13 million displaced and 34 million requiring aid, according to the United Nations.

At a Berlin conference, donors pledged €1.3 billion, while UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned of regional destabilisation. Sudan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs criticised the meeting, rejecting external involvement and accusing Western states of bypassing national sovereignty.

China deepens ties with Spain, UAE, and Vietnam amid global instability

China and Spain pledged deeper ties after talks between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, stressing multilateralism, EU–China cooperation, and global stability amid shifting US policy.

Separately, President Xi Jinping urged adherence to the international rule of law during talks with Crown Prince Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan of UAE, while Premier Li Qiang advanced China–UAE cooperation across energy, AI, and trade.

Meanwhile, President To Lam of Vietnam met President Xi Jinping, prioritising China–Vietnam supply chains and infrastructure links despite South China Sea tensions, reflecting Hanoi’s broader economic balancing strategy.

Spain and Brazil sign 15 agreements; US–Indonesia deepen defence cooperation

Spain and Brazil signed 15 agreements during a summit in Barcelona covering critical minerals, telecommunications, and artificial intelligence. Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva emphasised multilateralism and concerns over weakening global institutions, alongside engagement with Global South partners.

Meanwhile, the United States and Indonesia formalised a defence cooperation partnership at the Pentagon between Secretary of War Pete Hegseth and Defence Minister Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin, focusing on advanced military technologies and regional stability in the Indo-Pacific. Indonesia reaffirmed full sovereignty over its airspace amid discussions on potential US overflight access.

Australia deepens regional partnerships on energy security and Indo-Pacific defence

Malaysia and Australia reaffirmed energy cooperation during talks between Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, focusing on fuel supply, agriculture trade, and supply chain resilience amid Middle East disruptions.

Separately, Australia and Japan signed a A$10 billion defence agreement, with Australian Defence Minister Richard Marles and Japanese Defence Minister Shinjiro Koizumi confirming joint warship production to strengthen Indo-Pacific security.

Meanwhile, Australia and Brunei Darussalam, led by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Sultan Haji Hassanal Bolkiah of Brunei, pledged stable energy and food supply chains, with Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong highlighting long-term economic risks.

Lithuania–Azerbaijan cooperation grows; Botswana advances economic shift through Oman partnership

Lithuania is expanding cooperation with Azerbaijan following talks led by Lithuanian Prime Minister Inga Ruginienė in Baku, focusing on energy diversification, trade, logistics, and the Middle Corridor. Ambassador Kęstutis Vaškelevičius said Vilnius aims to advance EU–Azerbaijan relations ahead of its 2027 EU Council presidency.

Separately, Botswana and Oman signed agreements under President Duma Boko of Botswana and Sultan Haitham bin Tariq of Oman, targeting energy, mining, and infrastructure. Plans include a 500MW solar project, expanded mineral exploration, and logistics development, as Botswana seeks to reduce reliance on diamonds and strengthen economic resilience.

France–Portugal treaty enters force; Germany and Ukraine elevate strategic partnership

The France–Portugal Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation entered into force on Sunday (12 April), following its 2025 signing by French President Emmanuel Macron and Portuguese Prime Minister Luís Montenegro. In a message to Portuguese President António José Seguro, Macron emphasised a more sovereign and competitive Europe. The treaty advances defence, cybersecurity, energy interconnections, and SME support, alongside blue economy and mobility initiatives.

Separately, Germany and Ukraine upgraded ties to a strategic partnership after talks in Berlin. Germany reaffirmed support for air defence, drone co-production, and EU accession, alongside a €233 million package for reconstruction, innovation, and social recovery.

Poland strengthens strategic partnerships with Japan and South Korea

Japan and Poland upgraded ties to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership following talks in Tokyo between Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae of Japan and Prime Minister Donald Tusk of Poland. The agreement strengthens cooperation on security, AI, energy, infrastructure, and supply chains, alongside support for Ukraine’s sovereignty. A Social Security Agreement and sectoral frameworks were also signed.

Separately, South Korea and Poland reached a similar partnership after talks between President Lee Jae Myung and Prime Minister Donald Tusk. Both sides expanded defence, energy, and infrastructure cooperation, with Poland advancing major acquisitions of Korean military systems and emphasising global supply chain stability.

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